One of the country's top housing economists has come out with a new forecast and timeline for the market over the coming months - and it's got some great insights for anybody interested in real estate.
Dr. David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, says that housing starts are now down by about 20 percent from levels a year ago - but that should be no surprise.
After all, he says, after years of record housing production, the market had to cool off, "We are in the midst of an inevitable adjustment following boom years when housing market activity soared to unsustainable levels. The market that emerges from the current correction will display good balance between supply and demand, and move to a sustainable trend based on solid underlying fundamentals."
How soon might the turnaround begin? Well, nobody can answer that for certain, but based on his research, Dr. Seiders believes that the end of the down cycle may only be a matter of months away - sometime next spring is a real possibility in many areas.
In the meantime, Dr. Seiders sees an upside for consumers: If you've done your homework on your local market - and you know what's sitting unsold at what price and on what size lot - this may be a very opportune time to get off the sidelines and start making offers.
One important reason why: Dr. Seiders points out that the vast majority of local markets around the country have solid underlying economic fundamentals: Housing may be soft, but - jobs are growing. Household incomes are moving up - and inflation is under control.
Unlike some earlier cyclical downturns, such as the early 1990s recession years, the correction this time around is likely to be relatively brief and not so deep - as long as mortgage rates stay where they are, about a point above historic lows. Corrections could be deeper and longer in those markets where prices got most out of sync with local incomes, but even the majority of those metropolitan areas on the West and East coasts have relatively strong employment bases this time around.
Which raises a very basic question in my mind: When just about every economist in the country is telling us that - we're in a buyer's market, but that the down cycle may not last all that long - isn't this a smart time to be actively involved in real estate, searching for deals?
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